How England Can Reach the World Cup Last 16

England’s group stage draw could have certainly have been easier, but Roy Hodgson’s side nevertheless have a good chance of progressing to the knockout stage. England, Uruguay and Italy are all roughly of the same standard, with Costa Rica set to make up the numbers – so it seems like roughly a 65% chance of qualifying.

Of course, things aren’t quite as simple as that. In fact, there’s a good chance that Uruguay and Italy’s qualities are being overstated based upon a couple of superstars, while Costa Rica might prove surprisingly tough opponents on the final day… Depending on how previous games have gone.

Here’s how Hodgson will probably set up against the three sides.

Italy, June, 14th

England know all about Cesare Prandelli’s side, having been eliminated by Italy at Euro 2012 – where they were fortunate to reach penalties having been battered for 120 minutes. England’s problem was the fact Wayne Rooney failed to shut down Andrea Pirlo, allowing the deep-lying playmaker freedom to launch brilliant passes into attack.

England must ensure Pirlo is closed down quicker, and there are two obvious candidates for that role. Jordan Henderson is well capable of playing as a ‘destroyer’ high up the pitch, and has often been used in that role for Liverpool – although Hodgson might want him in a deeper position. The alternative option is Danny Welbeck, an extremely disciplined player who did a brilliant marking job on Xabi Alonso in the European Cup last season. He could replicate that role here. Rooney being pushed out to the flank for this week’s friendly against Ecuador suggests Hodgson might not play him as the number ten against Italy.

The 2006 World Cup winners have two weaknesses. First, they lack a genuinely talented attacking left-back, and therefore will probably either play centre-back Giorgio Chiellini or converted right-back Mattia De Sciglio out of position on that flank, which means England can afford to be adventurous in that zone, perhaps by playing Rooney there.

The other weakness is just behind the main striker, Mario Balotelli. Prandelli seems likely to use a 4-3-2-1 and has tried various options in the ‘2’, but none have properly clicked. England are most vulnerable behind Steven Gerrard, and in the zone between the lines, but will Italy be able to exploit this space?

Uruguay, June, 19th

Uruguay possess two excellent centre-forwards, with Luis Suarez likely to play on the shoulder of the last defender, and Edinson Cavani dropping deep and connecting Suarez and the midfield.

Nevertheless, that midfield is likely to be extremely functional, and therefore it wouldn’t be a surprise to see England dominating possession. Uruguay’s back four is rather slow, and they’ll be determined to guard against Daniel Sturridge’s pace by defending very deep, in turn forcing the midfield to drop back into a defensive position.

England will have to be patient, and will be wary of the fact Suarez loves counter-attacking into the channels. But if England push their full-backs forward and use the pace of players like Welbeck and Raheem Sterling, there’s no reason they can’t score a couple of goals.

Uruguayan goalkeeper Fernando Muslera isn’t particularly good at saving long-range shots, and often looks dodgy when dealing with crosses too – so if England can put constant pressure on the Uruguayan backline, there’s every chance of them forcing a mistake without having to create clear-cut chances.

They must defend set-pieces properly, however. Uruguay’s two centre-backs, Diego Lugano and Diego Godin, both have a reputation for finding the net when venturing forward for corner kicks, with Cavani also tremendous in the air and left-back Martin Caceres a useful aerial option too.

Costa Rica, June, 24th

This will be a very different test – against a defensive-minded side likely to play a 5-4-1 formation.

Of course, the events of both side’s previous three matches will dictate the strategy for this game, and England might get lucky and come against a Costa Rican side that plays more open than expected, either because they’re already eliminated and have the freedom to enjoy themselves, or because they need to register a win.

This would be extremely handy, because Costa Rica are solid when defending on the edge of their own box, but the centre-backs always look very nervous when high up the pitch and forced to turn. They’re often guilty of committing cynical fouls against quick players, and England should get plenty of joy in the channels.

England need to watch Joel Campbell, owned by Arsenal and capable of using his pace in behind to great effect – Bryan Ruiz and Christian Bolanos will attempt to support him, but often Campbell is simply too quick for them to catch up.

There is little attacking threat aside from this trio, so England should be able to record a victory, and perhaps even top the group.