Premier League Predictions by Michael Cox

1 – Chelsea – 82 points

Jose Mourinho’s side probably haven’t become better since last season, and yet still have the best starting XI – and, in particular, by far the best defence in the league. With various midfield options, the league’s best player in Eden Hazard, plus Diego Costa banging in the goals, no-one else can compete.

There are question marks, however, about Mourinho’s best formation – in particular the role of Cesc Fabregas – and the squad isn’t particularly deep. Mourinho’s record against title rivals is always good, however, and that could prove crucial in a tight title fight.

2 – Arsenal – 78 points

Petr Cech is an excellent signing, but a new goalkeeper alone won’t be enough to turn Arsenal into title winners. Forget new signings, the bigger question is whether those who played excellently for half a season (for various reasons) can sustain it over nine months. If Francis Coquelin is a top-class holder, if Hector Bellerin a flawless right-back, if Olivier Giroud still improving, if Santi Cazorla now best as a deep-lying playmaker and if Mesut Ozil finds consistency, Arsenal are all set.

That’s a lot of ‘ifs’, however, and Arsene Wenger isn’t entirely sure about his best system, particularly in the centre of midfield – Aaron Ramsey deserves to play there, but the combination of Coquelin and Cazorla seems to work better.

3 – Manchester City – 76 points

Both Fabian Delph and Raheem Sterling are astute purchases for City, but they’ve recruited in positions where they were already strong. Meanwhile, the defence has looked poor over the past couple of years, and the overall structure of the side without the ball is too open.

Sterling’s arrival probably means David Silva playing as a number ten more frequently, with Sergio Aguero alone upfront. That’s a devastating combination when on form, but if Aguero gets injured – and he usually does – it remains to be seen whether City have the firepower required to sustain a title bid. With Manuel Pellegrini’s future uncertain, it feels like a season that could fade away.

4 – Manchester United – 73 points

United steadily improved under Louis van Gaal last season, and the signings of Morgan Schneiderlin and Memphis Depay are very encouraging. United now have a good squad, packed with expensive recruits.

However, at this point there are still weaknesses in the starting XI. Wayne Rooney is the only recognised centre-forward, there’s still an absence of a commanding centre-back (although the organisation of the side should compensate for this) and the goalkeeping situation is uncertain.

United could have improved significantly by the end of the transfer window, but for now they’re fourth-favourites.

5 – Liverpool – 64 points

Liverpool are in much better shape than last season. The nature of Sterling’s departure was disappointing, but Liverpool receive a huge fee for him, while the absence of Steven Gerrard will be felt in terms of leadership, but he was no longer in the club’s best XI.

Christian Benteke is an established Premier League goalscorer, Roberto Firmino a potentially world-class talent and James Milner one of the best midfielders in the division. Nathaniel Clyne is a solid right-back, too. With Daniel Sturridge hopefully playing more than last season, Brendan Rodgers has plenty of attacking options.

6 – Tottenham – 62 points

This still doesn’t truly feel like Mauricio Pochettino’s side, particularly in the attacking third. He’s brought through some youngsters very impressively, and managed to shift some stagnating older players, but hasn’t yet been afforded the luxury of spending big money on new attackers. Only one surefire starter – Toby Alderweireld – has actually been signed by Pochettino.

There was a steady improvement last season, and Pochettino has Spurs playing the way he likes – but we’re yet to see his methods achieve significant success with any side.

7 – Crystal Palace – 54 points

Palace have finished 11th and 10th in the past two seasons, both when they initially struggled under a coach unsuited to this level (Ian Holloway and Neil Warnock) then replaced him with an established Premier League manager (Tony Pulis and Alan Pardew) and rose up the table quickly.

With Pardew in place for – presumably – an entire campaign, they could have their best-ever Premier League season.

Palace’s organisation is excellent – they defend well in two banks of four, with the likes of Wilfried Zaha, Yannick Bolasie and Jason Puncheon flying forward quickly on the counter-attack, making them a tough opponent for big sides. Yohan Cabaye, meanwhile, is the signing of the summer, and if Connor Wickham can score around a dozen goals, Palace will be in great shape.

8 – Stoke – 53 points

Stoke have finished ninth in the past two campaigns, and after a productive summer transfer campaign it’s easy to imagine them improving. The likes of Joselu and Ibrahim Afellay are exciting signings, although will have to prove they’re capable of fitting into Stoke’s structured, methodical system.

Stoke aren’t dissimilar to Palace – a manager who preaches solid defending in two banks of four, before counter-attacking down the flanks with exciting wingers. When the likes of Afellay, Marko Arnautovic and Bojan Krkic are on form, they can be devastating – but these players are too inconsistent for a finish in the European places.

9 – Everton – 53 points

The absence of Europa League football is a huge boost for Everton’s league chances, and at this point the club haven’t lost any regular first-teamers from last season.

However, John Stones seems likely to leave with no-one yet in place to replace him, and the team hasn’t improved significantly in any department. Gerard Deulofeu is more exciting than effective at this stage of his career, Tom Cleverley is a good player but no better than existing options. It feels like another season of frustration at Goodison.

10 – Southampton – 51 points

Southampton have proved able to withstand departures, because of both their excellent academy and their habit of recruiting intelligently. Nevertheless, Morgan Schneiderlin is their most significant loss so far, and while Jordy Clasie is a very fine player, it’s tough to replace one of the best midfielders in the Premier League.

There’s also the issue of the Europa League – although Koeman has the mentality, knowledge and tactical acumen for a decent assault on that competition. Southampton could well reach the quarter-finals of the Europa – although that would mean their league form suffering. Sadio Mane could be a good outside bet for top goalscorer, too – Graziano Pelle’s goals dried up after Christmas, and Mane could become the main man.

11 – Swansea – 47 points

Swansea overachieved last season compared to their shot totals, both for and against, but they’ve done that consistently in recent years, and therefore there’s probably a reason – most likely the superb organisation of the side, with and without the ball.

Swansea haven’t lost anyone of any note, while Andre Ayew is one of the summer’s most underrated signings – he’s much better than his Aston Villa-bound brother Jordan, and was signed for free. It’s tough to see a significant improvement, but there’s no reason Swansea should regress much either.

12 – West Brom – 47 points

Tony Pulis guarantees certain things – a solid defence, goals from set-pieces, and Premier League survival. Pulis has never been relegated in his career, has never been close to taking a Premier League side down, and instills his principles quickly wherever he goes.

The purchase of Rickie Lambert from Liverpool is one of the summer’s best deals – he was outstanding at Southampton in a more refined role than given credit for, and had few chances to impress at Anfield. If he forms a good partnership with Saido Berahino, West Brom could be an extremely effective side.

13 – Newcastle – 46 points

The disastrous end to last season was largely because Newcastle hadn’t bothered to replace their manager – John Carver was, with respect, hugely out of his depth and his side were fortunate to survive.

Steve McClaren is simply a much better coach, and will get the side organised and motivated. The signings have been interesting – Chancel Mbemba, Aleksandar Mitrovic and Georginio Wijnaldum cost over £35m combined, and don’t guarantee instant results, but all three are hugely talented. It’s tough to see Newcastle involved in either a relegation scrap, or a fight for the European places.

14 – Bournemouth – 41 points

Eddie Howe’s side are often described as playing exciting, attack-minded football – although it’s a more a methodical, nuanced style than that suggests. Bournemouth are unlikely to go ‘gung ho’ and leave their defence exposed, and will approach games in a controlled, positive fashion.

It’s difficult to ascertain whether their best players will cope at this level, but the likes of Matt Ritchie and Callum Wilson are talented footballers and will be playing with confidence and belief.

Bournemouth should start brightly and cause a few shocks, although might need January additions to ensure they don’t run out of steam.

15 – West Ham – 41 points

Slaven Bilic’s managerial carer hasn’t been particularly impressive at club level, and it’s difficult to believe he would have landed this job were it not for his spell at the club in the 1990s. That experience doesn’t seem particularly relevant, and ended acrimoniously anyway.

Succeeding Sam Allardyce is a difficult task – Bolton, Newcastle and Blackburn have all suffered when trying to replace him, and Bilic might take time to work out his best system. This is a fine group of players, though, with enough good attackers to provide sporadic moments of magic.

16 – Norwich – 38 points

A similar group of players to those relegated two years ago, but Alex Neil has made a tremendous start at Carrow Road, and the purchases of Graham Dorrans and Youssouf Mulumbu from West Brom are intelligent – they’re the type of unfussy, effective players you need in a relegation scrap.

It feels like Norwich will be capable of frustrating some of the bigger sides, particularly at home.

Don’t expect too many goals with Cameron Jerome likely to lead the line, but the organisation of the side should be enough to beat the drop.

17 – Aston Villa – 37 points

Maybe the most unpredictable side in the division. Villa have lost key players, replaced them with Ligue 1 imports who will take time to settle, and don’t have many emerging youngsters ready to turn in consistent performances – even Jack Grealish might be a little raw for that.

Tim Sherwood, meanwhile, has impressed in two short-term stints when taking charge midway through a season, but might prove more of a sticking plaster than an effective long-term coach.

With a sporting director now in place at Villa, Sherwood might be worth backing at 10/1 to be the first coach dismissed.

18 – Watford – 34 points

An intriguing squad featuring a plethora of talented players, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll gel. With so many newcomers forced to adapt to Premier League quickly – and manager Qique Sanchez Flores in the same boat, it’s easy to imagine them struggling in the first couple of months.

Watford’s overall operation is very impressive, and they might establish themselves as a Premier League club over the next decade – but this will be a difficult first campaign.

19 – Sunderland – 31 points

Dick Advocaat helping Sunderland to survival was a heartwarming story, but he might have been better bowing out on a high. Sunderland were somewhat fortunate to escape relegation, with their crucial wins coming courtesy of lucky deflections, fortunate penalty decisions and a Jermain Defoe wondergoal against Newcastle. You can’t rely on that over the course of a season.

There’s no great cohesion in the squad, and no significant new arrivals that will prompt a turnaround. It would be a surprise if Advocaat lasted the season.

20 – Leicester – 30 points

Claudio Ranieri has been somewhat patronised since his appointment at the King Power stadium – he’s a good coach who has often performed extremely well at big clubs who have been going through a difficult time.

That said, we’re yet to see what he’s like in charge of a club fighting relegation – and he doesn’t seem a particularly good match with Leicester. It’s difficult to work out precisely what caused Leicester’s sudden turnaround towards the back end of last season, but if anyone knows, it was Nigel Pearson. Switching manager is a risk, and Ranieri might not be a gamble worth taking.