Daily Horse Racing Tips

Running Total

Number of tips Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss Winning Streak
752 258 34.31% +191.19 0

Today's Nap

Date Horse Odds Stake Bookmaker Race
29th July King Of Rooks 11/8 1 point  888Sport 15:45 Goodwood

Today's NAP comes from Goodwood where in the 15:45 King Of Rooks should be very tough to beat.

He ran in a hot race at Royal Ascot last time and has sensibly been given plenty of time to get over that. Prior to that he'd won his last two races by a total of 11 lengths so is clearly a classy horse.

He's shown a preference for dominating from the front, something he couldn't do last time, and this course will really suit his style. The drying ground is certainly in his favour and this looks a reasonably poor renewal with King Of Rooks looking around 9lbs better off on ratings. There will always be horses open to improvement but it's hard to pick one out today and that makes King Of Rooks a solid bet for today.

Horse Racing Nap History

Date Horse Race Odds Result
28th July Dutch Connection 15:10 Goodwood 11/4 2nd
27th July Harasava 19:50 Galway 5/2 WIN
26th July Tahira 14:30 Uttoxeter 6/5 2nd
 25th July  Whatdoiwantthatfor 14:05 Ascot   4/1 3rd
24th July Crystal Zvezda 19:30 York 6/4 2nd
23rd July Royal Normandy 17:05 Sandown 15/8 WIN
22nd July Adham 15:40 Bath 11/10 WIN
21st July Mambo Fever 15:15 Musselburgh 5/4 4th
20th July Sweet Selection 20:20 Windsor 7/2 4th
19th July Gallope 16:15 Curragh 7/2 2nd
18th July Consort 16:35 Newbury 6/6 2nd
17th July Opal Tiara 15:40 Newbury 15/8 4th
16th July Denzille Lane 20:20 Epsom 3/1 WIN
15th July Muffri'ha 15:10 Lingfield 6/5 WIN
14th July Balios 18:25 Longchamp 7/2 5th
13th July Edge Of Heaven 20:00 Windsor 7/4 WIN
12th July Territories 15:45 Chantilly 2/1 WIN
11th July Brazen Beau 15:45 Newmarket 11/4 7th
10th July Easton Angel 14:40 Newmarket 7/4 4th
9th July Second Step 15:15 Newmarket 9/2 2nd
8th July Gale Force 20:20 Kempton 9/4 WIN
7th July Houdini 14:25 Wolverhampton 5/1 8th
6th July Pathway To Honour 19:55 Windsor 9/4 4th
5th July Teak 16:25 Market Rasen 9/4 3rd
4th July Chain Of Daisies 16:55 Sandown 3/1 WIN
3rd July Soapy Aitken 14:50 Sandown 11/8 3rd
2nd July Colourfilly 17.20 Haydock 5/1 NR
1st July Majeed 20.45 Kempton 2/1 3rd
30th June More Mischief 15:15 Hamilton 5/4 WIN
29th June Duke of Dundee 13.50 Chantilly 3/1 4th
28th June Great Page 15:55 Curragh 9/4 4th
27th June Katie's Diamond 14:50 Newmarket 5/2 WIN
26th June Peril 15:20 Wolverhampton 11/4 WIN

 

How to pick your nap

Talk to any serious punter and the most important aspect of betting for them is their staking. Striking the balance between how strongly you fancy a horse and how far away you believe the price to be from a horse's true chance of winning is a challenge that will remain constant throughout everyone's betting life. This is where the term NAP comes from. It stands for 'not a problem', i.e. a certainty. Now obviously there is no such thing as a certainty in any sport, look at MK Dons vs Manchester United, Ivanisevic at Wimbledon or Foinaven in the Grand National. These are just a few examples of sporting shocks and highlight that there are no certainties in the sporting world. Obviously, this is all part of the attraction of these sports and why the Premier League is the most popular club league in the world and why horse racing is one of the most popular betting mediums in the world. With racing you have the control to decide your betting fate however there are a number of outcomes; anything can happen - and it usually does, to borrow a phrase from the great Murray Walker. For the considered bettor you have to factor that into calculations and even if a horse is NAP material one can never use their entire bank/budget on one outcome.

Most punters will work to a staking plan with a number of 'points' in their bank. A standard bet would be one point but some punters may go as high as five points on one they really fancy, these would be their NAPs. There are no specific rules for what makes a horse NAP material, however the longer you bet, the more you get a nose for a strong bet over a bet with more risks. Ironically though, younger punters can do better when betting with NAPs as they tend to be less risk adverse than their older contemporaries and therefore will take more of a chance on their fancied runner which, assuming they are a good judge, leads to a better profit.

What goes into picking a NAP out?

The beauty of horse racing is the large number of variables. There are too many list and pretty much every punter in the land will only focus on one or two areas where they have been successful in the past. Some take an analytical approach and there are numerous methods such as form study, speed figures, handicapping, race trends and dosage which are all interesting subjects but not for everyone. Others will prefer to visit the tracks, these are usually professionals who can afford that life of luxury through their punting. The advantage they have is they will be tuned into the whispers and latch onto market movers earlier. Some punters will meticulously watch racing replays looking for anything which suggests a horse was unlucky and better than the paper form. There are also the less serious punters who are more happy to just enjoy a bet, they will go by gut instinct or use tipsters to guide them towards a bet.

The sheer breadth of punting styles means it's impossible to truly define a NAP but to us it means a horse who has the trip, going and form in their favour. We also like to look for something the bookies may have missed as to me there might be horses with a better chance of winning than my NAP but the odds reflect that. No one will ever be able to take into account every factor in a horse race, even bookmakers tend to offer themselves a fairly large over-round to cover themselves. As punters we don't have that advantage but we do have the advantage of not having to bet every horse unlike a bookmaker. We can cherry pick the best odds and the most stand out prices can be considered our NAPs.

From our perspective, one example would be that bookmakers often over price smaller stables and foreign horses. That's not to say they are always value but if you can latch onto a good horse in a small stable then the profit is much greater and in a way more rewarding. Coneygree in the Gold Cup would be an example of this; a beast of a horse who murdered his rivals in the same style of Denman but with the odds much more generous. Obviously the risk with smaller stables is their horses are never as consistent so that needs to be factored in. The bigger stables are harder to NAP but they offer more opportunities, simply because they have more horses running. Often a big trainer will get their horse to run up a sequence, and the time to latch onto that is early on. You will find that flat horses just out of maidens require a bit more guesswork for bookmakers as they haven't reached their full potential yet. Using breeding and replays of their earlier race you can learn to spot when a horse has a real chance of improving.

The best guidance that we can offer is to

By:- Ben Stones
Posted on:- 18/10/2012 - 09:57 AM

View All Authors

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