Daily Horse Racing Tips

Running Total

Number of tips Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss Winning Streak
877 295 33.64% +190.66 0

Today's Nap

Date Horse Odds Stake Bookmaker Race
26th November Value At Risk 11/4 1 point  Paddy Power (£30 Free Bet) 14:10 Newbury 

Today's bet comes from Newbury where in the 2:10 Value At Risk should be tough to defeat. He makes his chase debut today and looks set to be a real classy chaser. He performed well in hurdles last year, being sent off 8/1 for the Albert Bartlett Hurdle at the festival. He struggled in the mud that day, and the run can be written off. Before that he raced over too short a trip and was screaming three miler. This will be his first proper effort over that trip and he should relish it.


Horse Racing Nap History

Date Horse Race Odds Result
25th November Brave Deed 25/11/15 Fontwell 7/4 PU  
24th November Master Jake 14:00 Lingfield 13/8 WIN  
23rd November Mindurownbusiness 15:05 Chelmsford 5/2 WIN  
22nd November Minellaforlunch 13:50 Uttoxeter 5/4 2nd  
21st November Red Hanrahan 12:20 Ascot 7/4 8th  
20th November Vintage Clouds 15:05 Haydock 15/8 WIN  
19th November Uhlan Bute 13:00 Market Rasen 11/10 4th  
18th November Richard Pankhurst 18:55 Kempton 7/4 7th  
17th November Jumpandtravel 13:05 Fakenham 5/2 WIN  
16th November Stephanie Frances 14:25 Leicester 11/10 PU  
15th November Garde La Victoire 13:35 Cheltenham 11/10 WIN  
14th November Hi Vic 14:50 Uttoxeter 7/4 WIN  
13th November Penglai Pavilion 14:15 Cheltenham 5/4 3rd  
12th November Howlongisafoot 15:40 Taunton 4/1 WIN  
11th November Take The Cash 13:30 Bangor 9/2 3rd  
10th November Lil Rockerfeller 14:10 Huntingdon 5/1 3rd  
9th November Maximiser 13:45 Carlisle 3/1 2nd  
8th November Special Tiara 14:50 Navan 9/4 4th  
7th November Zarib 15:15 Wincanton 3/1 3rd  
6th November Village Vic 15:30 Musselburgh 6/4 WIN  
5th November Spanish Squeeze 18:15 Chelmsford 5/2 2nd  
4th November Mansfield 18:40 Aintree 11/8 2nd  
3rd November Vibrato Valtat 14:20 Exeter 5/2 WIN  
2nd November Dancing Dik 15:30 Plumpton 6/4 4th  
1st November Lord Lir 14:20 Huntingdon 2/1 3rd  
31st October Mitchum Swagger 15:45 Newmarket 9/2 2nd  
30th October Priceless 13:25 Newmarket 13/8 5th  
29th October Hold Tight 14:50 Lingfield 5/2 2nd  
28th October Mystery Code 14:10 Fakenham 7/4 WIN  
27th October Real Smart 14:05 Lingfield 9/4 2nd  

How to pick your nap

Talk to any serious punter and the most important aspect of betting for them is their staking. Striking the balance between how strongly you fancy a horse and how far away you believe the price to be from a horse's true chance of winning is a challenge that will remain constant throughout everyone's betting life. This is where the term NAP comes from. It stands for 'not a problem', i.e. a certainty. Now obviously there is no such thing as a certainty in any sport, look at MK Dons vs Manchester United, Ivanisevic at Wimbledon or Foinaven in the Grand National. These are just a few examples of sporting shocks and highlight that there are no certainties in the sporting world. Obviously, this is all part of the attraction of these sports and why the Premier League is the most popular club league in the world and why horse racing is one of the most popular betting mediums in the world. With racing you have the control to decide your betting fate however there are a number of outcomes; anything can happen - and it usually does, to borrow a phrase from the great Murray Walker. For the considered bettor you have to factor that into calculations and even if a horse is NAP material one can never use their entire bank/budget on one outcome.

Most punters will work to a staking plan with a number of 'points' in their bank. A standard bet would be one point but some punters may go as high as five points on one they really fancy, these would be their NAPs. There are no specific rules for what makes a horse NAP material, however the longer you bet, the more you get a nose for a strong bet over a bet with more risks. Ironically though, younger punters can do better when betting with NAPs as they tend to be less risk adverse than their older contemporaries and therefore will take more of a chance on their fancied runner which, assuming they are a good judge, leads to a better profit.

What goes into picking a NAP out?

The beauty of horse racing is the large number of variables. There are too many list and pretty much every punter in the land will only focus on one or two areas where they have been successful in the past. Some take an analytical approach and there are numerous methods such as form study, speed figures, handicapping, race trends and dosage which are all interesting subjects but not for everyone. Others will prefer to visit the tracks, these are usually professionals who can afford that life of luxury through their punting. The advantage they have is they will be tuned into the whispers and latch onto market movers earlier. Some punters will meticulously watch racing replays looking for anything which suggests a horse was unlucky and better than the paper form. There are also the less serious punters who are more happy to just enjoy a bet, they will go by gut instinct or use tipsters to guide them towards a bet.

The sheer breadth of punting styles means it's impossible to truly define a NAP but to us it means a horse who has the trip, going and form in their favour. We also like to look for something the bookies may have missed as to me there might be horses with a better chance of winning than my NAP but the odds reflect that. No one will ever be able to take into account every factor in a horse race, even bookmakers tend to offer themselves a fairly large over-round to cover themselves. As punters we don't have that advantage but we do have the advantage of not having to bet every horse unlike a bookmaker. We can cherry pick the best odds and the most stand out prices can be considered our NAPs.

From our perspective, one example would be that bookmakers often over price smaller stables and foreign horses. That's not to say they are always value but if you can latch onto a good horse in a small stable then the profit is much greater and in a way more rewarding. Coneygree in the Gold Cup would be an example of this; a beast of a horse who murdered his rivals in the same style of Denman but with the odds much more generous. Obviously the risk with smaller stables is their horses are never as consistent so that needs to be factored in. The bigger stables are harder to NAP but they offer more opportunities, simply because they have more horses running. Often a big trainer will get their horse to run up a sequence, and the time to latch onto that is early on. You will find that flat horses just out of maidens require a bit more guesswork for bookmakers as they haven't reached their full potential yet. Using breeding and replays of their earlier race you can learn to spot when a horse has a real chance of improving.

The best guidance that we can offer is to make your own decisions, listen to what others say but don't always follow if you feel something is missing. No one will ever be correct 100% of the time, indeed, in racing you don't even have to be right more often than not to make a profit.

One 3/1 shot from 3 bets is a profit!

The goal is to make a profit and the only way to do that is by beating the odds and making the most of it when that stand out bet, or in other words a NAP, comes along

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