Sports Betting Tipping System
Sports betting has grown hugely since the start of the millennium and this trend has been helped by online opportunities. The number of sports, leagues and market have increased significantly. Recent growth areas include in-play and mobile betting. In 2015 more bets were placed on mobile devices than desktops for the first time. By 2018 the majority of bets will be in-play and placed on a mobile phone.
Oliver Cromwell once said: “He who stops being better stops being good”. Roughly translated this means sports bettors should learn from their experience and develop more winning strategies. The Japanese have a word for the concept of continual improvement: kaizen. We have identified this process by naming our parent company Kaizen Enterprises Ltd.
The thinking behind betting systems is to devise a strategy, test and proof that strategy over a decent period of time and apply the process in order to bet profitably. In a book called Sports Betting to Win published by Harriman House Ltd in 2011 (Copyright 978-0-857190-39-0) Steven Ward defined this process as the ODDA Model. The model has four elements that roughly equate to the procedure that should be adopted in implementing a betting strategy:
- Observe: make observations about sports results
- Orient: gather information
- Decide: sports and markets to bet on
- Act: place bets using a staking strategy
Everton are 23/20 at Bet365 to beat Aston Villa in the Premier League tonight.
Most people bet for fun but that fun can be enhanced through profitable betting. Placing money on the outcome of sports events comprises a number of decisions: sports, leagues, markets, strategy and stakes. In the battle to beat the bookies decision making should be rational. Positive betting outcomes are more likely to be achieved when strategies are rational and applied with discipline.
Making irrational decisions is part of human nature but should be eliminated in the quest to win money from betting on sport. One of the keys to making the right decisions is avoiding temptations that can affect the bottom line. Betting for fun is different to betting for profit. Bettors get sucked into placing the fun bet rather than the one that offers some value. Past experience should be applied to current performance when placing bets on sport and this is a key element of the process.
Steve Ward described the betting process as follows: developing situational awareness, making decisions and then acting in accordance with a set of desired outcomes. To paraphrase this theory look and learn would suffice. In a brochure published by Agora Lifestyles in 2010 called Proven Profit Systems the author identified a number of ways to increase profits from betting on sport. We have tested their theories and handpicked 8 proven strategies covering the same number of sports.
So, we present a selection of systems that are proven and fun.
Backing Two-Year-Old Horses
Juvenile Flat races take place during the regular turf season between March and November. However, early season form can be unreliable and difficult to work out because many of the horses will have not run before. This system is most reliable from June to August because there will be some definite form lines to assess and the going will be consistently good.
This strategy has three distinct stages which are described below:
- In any daily newspaper identify horses running in races specifically for two-year-olds that finished in the first three places when they last run. Sixty-six per cent of this type of race are won by horses placed in their previous race.
- Horses that ran more than 35 days ago do not count.
- In races with more than one qualifier the shortest priced qualifier applies.
During the summer there might be more than one qualifier in different races so multiple bets are advised and winning ones can boost the betting bank significantly. By applying an adjusted stakes strategy the bank will grow steadily during a winning run and be protected after a run of losing bets.
Avoid Household Names Occasionally
Snooker is a very popular betting sport even though it is now mainly covered by the dedicated sports channels. The major tournaments still appear on terrestrial television and most of the old stars now commentate. However, punters still tend to back their favourites which create wrong prices and opportunities to take advantage. Frame betting is fraught with danger but backing a player to win a match or tournament is potentially more viable.
Snooker matches are more about players competing against the balls on the table rather than the opponent. It is one sport in which an individual has no influence on play once the other player is at the table potting balls. This facet of the game means inexperienced players in form can beat an experienced opponent not quite at his best. Previous tournament form is irrelevant and current levels of play and confidence are more significant form factors.
In making selections punters should look at the relative recent form of each player. The key to adopting this strategy is to back players in form in matches against more experienced players who are not at their best. Having studied the recent results select players in form up against older more recognisable players but only back them at even money or better in conventional tournaments like the Masters, UK Championship and World Championship.
Follow Tail-Enders in Next Out Markets
Live betting on cricket is popular and there are many betting opportunities for in-play punters. The sport is played all year in different parts of the world and most series, One day Internationals and T20 matches are shown live. Once play begins bettors can wager on just about every facet of the game including the next batsman to be out.
Bookmakers price up this market regardless of which pair are batting. In many cases when players are of similar standard there is no edge for the punter. However, there is still an ideal betting scenario when a player from high up the order is at wicket with a tail-ender. This type of player is generally a specialist bowler who bats at eight or lower. Their objectives are not to lose their wicket and give most of the stroke to the specialist batsman.
In fact, some lower order batters are good at protecting their wicket and their batting average may not reflect their ability. Bookmakers are predictable when pricing these markets and will mainly make the player from higher up the order the outsider to be the next man to be dismissed. Certain criteria need to be met for a bet and these can be established by addressing the following questions:
- Does the better batsman need to score runs quickly because of the match situation?
- Is that player competent enough to manipulate the strike?
- Does he need to play risky shots?
- Does the tail-ender look safe and secure?
Given several yes’s there is value in backing the batsman from higher up the order at an exaggerated price. Over time this strategy will provide enough winners to beat the bookies.
Betting On Corners
Punters can bet on just about every aspect of a football match. The objective is to score goals and for some betting on the team that scores most and wins a match is the limit of their betting on the sport. Some customers prefer the slightly more exotic bets such as the number of corners and can establish an edge by recording the right numbers. During the second half of the domestic season with a bank of stats corner bettors have an advantage.
From the start of the season corners scored and conceded must be recorded for each match. This creates an average number of corners over the course of the season so far. The figures can reveal a potentially low scoring match due to teams taking part with low average corner counts. This strategy has been successful because not everyone takes the time to record team’s corner count.
Corner statistics are unambiguous but there are also five unquantifiable factors in determining the potential for a high or low number of corners which are:
- Attacking nature
- Defensive tactics
- Clearing lines
- Size of pitch
The purpose of this system is to identify above or below average number of corners in a match and bet accordingly.
Compare Scoring Records
Rugby League has been transformed by making it a summer game and creating the Super league, backed and televised by Sky Sports. Beyond the avid fans who bet on their own team rugby league betting is not too popular. However, an effective system can result in profitable betting on the sport. The information needed to implement this system is readily available in daily papers and online.
Bookmakers set a handicap for matches which equates to a head start for the underdog. The handicap reflects the bookmaker’s view on the relative ability of each side. Common practice is for both teams to be quoted at 5/6 or 10/11. Even mismatches can provide betting opportunities because the handicap is an equaliser. Here is the simple procedure for assessing the accuracy of the handicap:
- Find each side’s point’s difference
- Divide this number by the number of matches played
- Compare the ratings for each side
If there is a difference of more than three points between the ratings and the bookmaker’s quote a bet is indicated. Retrospective statistics can also be used to confirm these findings and lead to a bigger bet. This method does not guarantee a 100% strike rate but the law of averages should ensure a healthy profit over time.
Stats For Winning NFL Betting
American Football is a sport played by huge specimens who are padded up and there are more advert breaks than playing action. However, the sport provides a precise opportunity for winning money. In fact there is a master plan behind all the players seemingly running in different directions. The NFL season runs from September to January and the climactic Superbowl which is the most watched sporting event in the United States.
Every player on the field is a specialist at some aspect of the game and coaches use them like chess pieces to achieve the overall objective of scoring more points than the opposition. All the moves are recorded and analysed later. Statistics can successfully be used to predict many winners, especially those that identify how competent a team is in moving the ball forwards. The stats indicate a team’s efficiency in moving towards the end zone and preventing the opposition doing the same in the opposite direction.
A team’s efficiency can be assessed by looking at the average yards per play gained. This measure is not the same as knowing the points scored by each team. The point of the stat is to show how many plays are required to move the ball forwards a certain number of yards. The figure encompass just about all the data required to identify potential bets. Whenever there is a big difference in the opposing team’s average yards gained figure there is only one likely winner and a bet should be placed at odds around the even money mark.
Focus on the Pitchers
By checking and comparing some basic numbers it is possible to devise a winning system for betting on baseball. The American Major League Baseball (MLB) runs from April to October when the purpose of the game is to score runs. The team that scores most runs in nine innings wins the game. It is a contest of bat against ball and similar to rounders.
Most bookies accept bets on leagues and individual matches. There are many fixtures to monitor so British bookies can lose track. By keeping on top of some relevant statistics there is an opportunity to stay one step ahead of bookmakers. The key stats can be found on the official MLB website and through other general sports services.
Here is a step by step guide for profitable baseball betting:
- Focus on the pitcher whose job is to throw the ball at the batters in such a way as to prevent them hitting the ball and scoring runs
- The key number is the pitcher’s Earned Run Average (ERA) which shows the average number of runs he concedes per game
- Compare each pitcher’s average to see if there is a major difference
- Calculate the Total Runs Average (TRA) to show the average number of runs a team gives up when a particular pitcher plays
- This measure allows punters to discover how many runs a pitcher concedes based on nine innings
Any team with a TRA advantage of two runs or more is worth backing. With so many fixtures during a season the best policy is to measure performance over the whole summer.
Use Offensive and Defensive Ratings
Ice hockey games feature six players on each side and the aim is to score by hitting the puck into the opponent’s goal. The National Hockey League (NHL) in North America includes more than 80 games for each team during the regular season. A simple ratings system can be applied to assess the relative chances of each team. The best statistics can be easily obtained and the procedure is as follows:
- Compile Offensive Ratings by dividing the average number of shots by the average number of goals
- Compile Defensive Ratings by dividing the average number of shots given up by the average number of goals conceded
- Compare both numbers and if one team is better at attacking and defending it is a bet
- If one team has as edge in attack and the other in defence a bet is not placed
UK bookmakers generally follow United States bookmakers when setting prices. However, if a team’s star player is injured they may be slow to change their odds. It is a good idea to look out for stories online. If there is a significant injury and the teams look evenly matched on ratings the team without the injury should be backed.
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