Wimbledon 2019 Betting Preview : One last hurrah for Federer in SW19
- Live on the BBC
It is a hectic summer of sport with a huge amount going on, but the reliable staple of the English summer is back at the start of July as Wimbledon gets underway in south-west London.
The men’s game has some very familiar names at the top of the betting list, with the same three men that have been there for the last decade or so. Andy Murray may not be in the mix anymore, but Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are still the shortest prices going into Wimbledon this year as they have been so many times before.
There are a few names coming into the picture, the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev, young stars who are sure to win Grand Slams in the coming years, but this is just a bit too early for them. The old guard are still a little too strong for them and it would be a pretty hefty shock for either Tsitsipas or Zverev to claim their first major in London this summer.
So which of the big three will be lifting the famous trophy in front of the Royal Box? Rafa Nadal seems very unlikely, despite still being third favourite for the tournament. He has two Wimbledon titles to his name, but hasn’t won the competition since 2010 and not been in the final since 2011.
Yes, the Spanish legend won the French Open for an incredible 12th time this year and reached the Australian Open final, but grass has never been his best surface and he does not look like a good bet to win his first Wimbledon crown in nine years.
Djokovic is the favourite going in as the defending champion and the current Australian and US Open champ. However, he has actually not had the most memorable time of it since that victory in Melbourne. He won the Madrid Open in impressive style, but that is the only other title he has added to his collection.
He will attract a lot of money and he is understandably favourite, but at a frustratingly small price of 6/4 he is not that tempting. The Serb is not such a dominant force that a price of that level makes much sense, we will have to look elsewhere for some value.
That leaves the trusty old Swiss hero Roger Federer, who is aiming for a ninth Wimbledon title. Eight of those crowns came pre-2013 but Federer did lift the trophy as recently as 2017 and has reached three of the last five finals, so he certainly still has the game.
Federer proved that he is in decent form by winning the Halle Open yet again in June, for an unbelievable 10th time. Roger lost in the final of that event last year, last winning it in 2017, when he won Wimbledon, which could be a positive sign for him.
The Swiss legend was also supremely impressive earlier in the season, winning at the Dubai Championships and the Miami Open in March, while also reaching the Indian Wells final.
The women’s draw is quite the opposite to the men’s with a brand new name at the top of the betting, with another player who has never won the title also in contention.
Ashleigh Barty has come out of nowhere this year to become one of the leading contenders for almost any tournament she enters. Having never been to the quarter-finals of a major before this year, she reached the last eight in Australia and then won the French Open. She has also won the Miami Open and recently the Birmingham Classic. She is in fine form and has shown her Grand Slam-pedigree, but for her to add Wimbledon to her trophy cabinet would be an outrageously good achievement, so outrageous that it is very, very unlikely.
The Birmingham win was her second WTA title on grass, but it is not her best surface, and her record at Wimbledon is not good. She has only qualified for the main draw three times in the past, less than any other Grand Slam, and has only been past the first round once. She is a lady who can achieve remarkable things, but this is even too much for her.
Naomi Osaka will be attracting a decent amount of money as the Australian and US Open champion, but she too has never been beyond the third round in the competition. She has never won a title on grass in her career and she will take a bit more time to build up to Wimbledon success.
We should be backing a more experienced hand in London this summer, with Serena Williams still one of the favourites, but a more tempting bet is Petra Kvitova. The two-time Wimbledon champion is as low as 9/1 in some places, third favourite, but is available at 12/1 and that looks very appealing.
The Czech star is finally back to near her best after the horrific knife attack caused an entirely understandable career slump. She reached her first Grand Slam final since 2014 at this year’s Australian Open and she can go one further at her favourite major event.
Her consistency has been impressive in 2019, reaching four finals, winning two of then, in Sydney and at the Stuttgart Open. She has the form and the experience on the grass of London, something the other likely contenders cannot claim.
Roger Federer has just won the Halle Open for a tenth time
Federer has won three tournaments in 2019 and reached another final
Novak Djokovic has only retained a Wimbledon title once before
Petra Kvitova is a two-time Wimbledon champion
Kvitova has reached four finals in 2019, winning two of them
Kvitova has won nine out of the last 11 finals she has contested
Rafael Nadal has not won Wimbledon since 2010
Ashleigh Barty has never been past the third round at Wimbledon
Naomi Osaka has never been past the third round at Wimbledon
Serena Williams has not won a title in 2019