Lockinge Stakes Preview : Somehow Has Conditions To Suit At Newbury And Can Prevail
Event Venue: Newbury Racecourse, Live on ITV. Saturday at 3.30pm.See Stats
The Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday is a Group 1 contest which means colts and geldings carry nine stone but female horse get a weight allowance of three pounds. That concession could be crucial in the final reckoning and make the only filly in the race difficult to beat. Bookmakers are offering ante post betting and free bets related to the meeting at Newbury.
Somehow, 11/2 with bet365, is a four year old filly trained by Aidan O’Brien. Horses aged four or five have won the last 11 renewals of the race so the third favourite has the right age profile. Ribchester and Galileo Gold are shorter in the betting and have something in hand on official ratings.
The Lockinge is part of the British Champions Series in the mile division and is often a key trial for the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Frankel was the last horse to win both races in 2012 and nothing of that quality runs this year. Ascot is featured in our guide to racecourses in Britain and Ireland.
Somehow was fourth in the Oaks last season, more than 21 lengths adrift of Minding who won the Classic for the same trainer. Here is the full result. Minding is not travelling from Ireland for the Lockinge which is a surprise because the horse would be the form selection to win the race. Alice Springs is another potential runner for O’Brien but she is also absent.
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes is the race to assess as a form guide for the Lockinge. Minding beat Ribchester by half a length carrying three pounds less. Galileo Gold was seven lengths off the pace in fifth place so Ribchester has something in hand on Saturday strictly on the form. Full details of the race are here.
Collateral form is not an exact science but Lightning Spear (5/1 with Skybet) is right in the mix on the basis of the Ascot race last October. The horse was just a length behind Ribchester carrying three pounds more and the horse race of the same weigh this weekend.
Form and ratings analysts would suggest Lightning Spear is the most likely winner of the Lockinge. The horse has just come up short at Group 1 level but conditions are favourable this time. However, the horse is ground dependent and you are betting on no rain before Saturday’s race and that is an indefinable factor.
On past races Somehow has little chance to win on Saturday. However, the horse was impressive at Newmarket earlier this month. Galileo Gold, 10/3 with Ladbrokes, and Ribchester are running on turf in the UK for the first time this season and Somehow has a fitness advantage.
Ribchester, backable at 2/1 with Boylesports, was third in the Dubai Turf at Meydan at the end of March. The horse is a Group 1 winner but was slightly disappointing on World Cup night. Galileo Gold has not run since the QE11 at Ascot last October so fitness is taken on trust.
Somehow will have to produce a career best effort to win the Lockinge. The filly has shown improvement over her last three races, raced and won in the last two weeks and receives three pounds from the male horses. The combination of those factors makes Somehow the selection for the 2017 Lockinge Stakes.
SOMEHOW has conditions to suit and can win the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.
- The race was first run in 1958 and was originally open to three-year-old horses.
- Three horses have won the race twice most recently Soviet line in 1995 and 1996.
- Lester Piggott (6), Sir Michael Stoute (7) and Godolphin (7) have most winners of jockeys, trainers and owners.
- Since 1990 two six-year-olds have won the race but every other winner was four or five.
- Frankie Dettori’s four wins span from 1994 to 2008.
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