The Cesarewitch Preview : John Constable Can Justify Favouritism Over This Gruelling Trip
Event Venue: Newmarket Racecourse , Saturday October 14th at 3.40pm. Live on ITV .See Stats
The Cesarewitch is getting to be known as one of the last major Flat races of the season and the first of the jumps. It’s a two miles two furlong race on the level at Newmarket and National Hunt horses have figured in recent years. John Constable is the favourite and the horse is trained by Evan William who predominantly trains jumpers. He is the selection and you can back the horse with your bookmaker free bet.
John Constable (8/1 with Ladbrokes) won a major handicap hurdle at Haydock in May. The horse won by 14 lengths and that is decent form. If that level of ability over hurdles can be translated into Flat form the horse will be difficult to beat. The open nature of the Cesarewitch is reflected by the betting market with no horse at single figure odds other than the tip. The race is a handicap for horses aged three with a 10 pound allowance for young horses at the minimum age.
Opposition to John Constable comes in the form of a maximum field of 34 runners. At eight stone nine pounds the horse is carrying a manageable weight and is 15 pounds lighter than the top weight. Since 2000 five winners have carried more than nine stone but the last four winners were no heavier than eight stone eight so John Constable is in the right range. Eight winners this century were in the care of trainers better known for their National Hunt horses, including Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs.
The Cesarewitch is always a tough race to assess but John Constable has been backed on the basis of the Haydock form. The horse can make a successful transition to the Flat and the jockey is the champion, Jim Crowley. He was booked earlier this week and that’s a great move by the trainer. Crowley has never won the race and John Constable is Williams’ first major foray into Flat racing. Over the last 10 years the average price of the winner is over 30/1 in a range from 9/2 favourite to 66/1. Only two favourites have won this century.
London Prize is a viable alternative to John Constable. The horse was balloted out of the Northumberland Plate but won the consolation race at Newcastle. London Prize has been laid out for this race for some time. At nine stone two the horse has been done no favours by the handicapper but there could be more to come. London Prize has been campaigned with a major handicap in mind and the horse can make the frame in the Cesarewitch on Saturday.
Dubawi Fifty (12/1 with Coral) gets in off a relatively low weight but carries two pounds more than John Constable which could make all the difference at the end of the gruelling. The horse is an out and out stayer and that will be a massive factor in the long straight. Dubawi Fifty has the potential for improvement and could be a blot on the handicap. However, JOHN CONSTABLE has been better treated so the horse can win the 2017 Cesarewitch Handicap.
JOHN CONSTABLE has the right credentials to be the winning favourite.
- Only one horse has won the race more than once, Aim To Prosper in 2010 and 2012.
- Doug smith is the leading jockey with six wins between 1939 and 1966
- Since 1974 the winners have been in the range of 9/2 to 66/1.
- In that spell only four outright favourites have prevailed.
- Jumps trainers Martin Pipe, Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have won the race twice from 2000.
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